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epss/LEV/index.html

@@ -1995,7 +1995,7 @@ <h1 id="introduction-to-lev">Introduction to LEV<a class="headerlink" href="#int
 <li>why it matters for day-to-day prioritization  </li>
 <li>how to apply it alongside <abbr title="Exploit Prediction Scoring System">EPSS</abbr> and <abbr title="Known Exploited Vulnerability">KEV</abbr>  </li>
 </ul>
-<p><img alt="🧑‍💻" class="twemoji" src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/jdecked/twemoji@15.0.3/assets/svg/1f9d1-200d-1f4bb.svg" title=":technologist:" /> [Source Code] will be provided for LEV. Instead of making invalid assumptions to optimize the computation for LEV2 (handling "<abbr title="Exploit Prediction Scoring System">EPSS</abbr> scores as covering only a single day by dividing them by 30": <span class="arithmatex">\(P_1 \approx P_{30}/30\)</span>), it will use the correct algorithm but optimize with concurrent processing.</p>
+<p><img alt="🧑‍💻" class="twemoji" src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/jdecked/twemoji@15.0.3/assets/svg/1f9d1-200d-1f4bb.svg" title=":technologist:" /> <a href="https://github.com/RiskBasedPrioritization/LEV/">Source Code</a> is a clean-room implementation of the LEV source code i.e. from the whitepaper only. It is not associated with the LEV paper authors.</p>
 </div>
 <h2 id="what-is-lev">What is LEV?<a class="headerlink" href="#what-is-lev" title="Permanent link">&para;</a></h2>
 <p><strong>Likely Exploited Vulnerabilities (LEV) is a probabilistic score proposed by NIST to estimate the chance that a published vulnerability (<abbr title="CVE Common Vulnerability and Exposures. A standardized list of publicly known vulnerabilities and exposures maintained by the MITRE Corporation.">CVE</abbr>) has already been exploited in the wild</strong>. </p>
@@ -2176,8 +2176,9 @@ <h3 id="lev2-approximation">LEV2 Approximation<a class="headerlink" href="#lev2-
 </div>
 <p>LEV handles <abbr title="Exploit Prediction Scoring System">EPSS</abbr> scores as covering only a single day by dividing them by 30: <span class="arithmatex">\(P_1 \approx P_{30}/30\)</span></p>
 <p>Dividing a 30-day probability by 30 to get a 1-day probability generally <strong>does not make sense</strong> in a rigorous probabilistic context.</p>
+<p>An example run of the code from <abbr title="Exploit Prediction Scoring System">EPSS</abbr> to 2023-3-7 to 2025-5-31 showed that this approximation resulted in +674 vulnerabilities (+1.57%) less than the rigorous approach.</p>
 <figure>
-<p><img alt="" src="../../assets/images/p30_error.png" />
+<p><img alt="" src="../../assets/images/p30_error.png" width="800px" />
   </p>
 <figcaption></figcaption>
 </figure>
@@ -2198,6 +2199,13 @@ <h3 id="lev2-approximation">LEV2 Approximation<a class="headerlink" href="#lev2-
 computation and increases the equation's responsiveness to changing scores (especially for
 newly released vulnerabilities).</p>
 </div>
+<div class="admonition tip">
+<p class="admonition-title">Tip</p>
+<p>Using standard concurrent processing per the source code, the approximation is not required on a standard computer.</p>
+<ul>
+<li>the code completes in minutes </li>
+</ul>
+</div>
 <h3 id="independent-events-assumption">Independent Events Assumption<a class="headerlink" href="#independent-events-assumption" title="Permanent link">&para;</a></h3>
 <div class="admonition warning">
 <p class="admonition-title"><strong>Attacks Aren't Random</strong></p>

print_page/index.html

@@ -4598,7 +4598,7 @@ <h2 class='nav-section-title' id='section-nist-lev'>
 <li>why it matters for day-to-day prioritization  </li>
 <li>how to apply it alongside <abbr title="Exploit Prediction Scoring System">EPSS</abbr> and <abbr title="Known Exploited Vulnerability">KEV</abbr>  </li>
 </ul>
-<p><img alt="🧑‍💻" class="twemoji" src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/jdecked/twemoji@15.0.3/assets/svg/1f9d1-200d-1f4bb.svg" title=":technologist:" /> [Source Code] will be provided for LEV. Instead of making invalid assumptions to optimize the computation for LEV2 (handling "<abbr title="Exploit Prediction Scoring System">EPSS</abbr> scores as covering only a single day by dividing them by 30": <span class="arithmatex">\(P_1 \approx P_{30}/30\)</span>), it will use the correct algorithm but optimize with concurrent processing.</p>
+<p><img alt="🧑‍💻" class="twemoji" src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/jdecked/twemoji@15.0.3/assets/svg/1f9d1-200d-1f4bb.svg" title=":technologist:" /> <a href="https://github.com/RiskBasedPrioritization/LEV/">Source Code</a> is a clean-room implementation of the LEV source code i.e. from the whitepaper only. It is not associated with the LEV paper authors.</p>
 </div>
 <h2 id="epss-lev-what-is-lev">What is LEV?<a class="headerlink" href="#epss-lev-what-is-lev" title="Permanent link">&para;</a></h2>
 <p><strong>Likely Exploited Vulnerabilities (LEV) is a probabilistic score proposed by NIST to estimate the chance that a published vulnerability (<abbr title="CVE Common Vulnerability and Exposures. A standardized list of publicly known vulnerabilities and exposures maintained by the MITRE Corporation.">CVE</abbr>) has already been exploited in the wild</strong>. </p>
@@ -4779,8 +4779,9 @@ <h3 id="epss-lev-lev2-approximation">LEV2 Approximation<a class="headerlink" hre
 </div>
 <p>LEV handles <abbr title="Exploit Prediction Scoring System">EPSS</abbr> scores as covering only a single day by dividing them by 30: <span class="arithmatex">\(P_1 \approx P_{30}/30\)</span></p>
 <p>Dividing a 30-day probability by 30 to get a 1-day probability generally <strong>does not make sense</strong> in a rigorous probabilistic context.</p>
+<p>An example run of the code from <abbr title="Exploit Prediction Scoring System">EPSS</abbr> to 2023-3-7 to 2025-5-31 showed that this approximation resulted in +674 vulnerabilities (+1.57%) less than the rigorous approach.</p>
 <figure>
-<p><img alt="" src="../assets/images/p30_error.png" />
+<p><img alt="" src="../assets/images/p30_error.png" width="800px" />
   </p>
 <figcaption></figcaption>
 </figure>
@@ -4801,6 +4802,13 @@ <h3 id="epss-lev-lev2-approximation">LEV2 Approximation<a class="headerlink" hre
 computation and increases the equation's responsiveness to changing scores (especially for
 newly released vulnerabilities).</p>
 </div>
+<div class="admonition tip">
+<p class="admonition-title">Tip</p>
+<p>Using standard concurrent processing per the source code, the approximation is not required on a standard computer.</p>
+<ul>
+<li>the code completes in minutes </li>
+</ul>
+</div>
 <h3 id="epss-lev-independent-events-assumption">Independent Events Assumption<a class="headerlink" href="#epss-lev-independent-events-assumption" title="Permanent link">&para;</a></h3>
 <div class="admonition warning">
 <p class="admonition-title"><strong>Attacks Aren't Random</strong></p>